In this brief article, I focus on how much transmit power is typically used on the HF and microwave bands. Survey respondents were asked about what they consider “typical” usage although these settings can certainly be different at any given operation. The results do give the reader a picture of how amplifiers are used on these two broad segments of band allocations by Canadian ham operators.
In Figure 1 (click for larger image), the maximum power used to transmit on 160-6 meters is displayed in a pie chart. Although many may not agree that 10 watts is QRP power, we are using that convention here. About three-fourths of the survey respondents say they use between 10 and 150 watts in a typical transmission. This is a wide gap in RF power. However, it is a range that places operators between QRP and what many of today’s HF transceivers will output. Some 17 percent use over 150 watts, perhaps up to their license limit. Only 7 percent report that they use QRP levels at less than 10 watts. These responses are not contingent on the mode of transmission.
Turning to the VHF and UHF bands, Figure 2 summarizes the typical power used in Canada. A similar pattern occurs as in HF and six-meter operation. Just under three-fourths (71%) use between 10-150 watts on a regular basis. A small slice, some 2 percent, report over 150 watts. About one-fourth (27%) say that less than 10 watts is what they typically use in these bands.
In both HF and the VHF/UHF frequency bands, only a small proportion say they use amplifiers to reach over the 150-watt RF power mark. There is a small but notable share using what we’ve termed QRP levels in HF (7%). A decidedly larger share use above QRP levels in VHF or UHF bands (27%). For many hams, this is very understandable, given the most popular band of 2 Meters (92%). But operations on HF using a 10-watt definition of QRP are much smaller.
The power utilized in the microwave bands reflects a very different picture. Figure 3 displays two box plots to illustrate. As shown in previous articles on this blog, microwave band usage is a niche activity within Canadian ham radio. Fewer than 10 percent report any activity but these spent quite a bit of time on these frequencies. Likewise, the boxplot in the left panel of Figure 3 illustrates the small number of microwave aficionados who use high power. (This is power in watts without consideration of antenna gain.)
In the right panel, I’ve reproduced the left-hand panel’s data in watts into a logged form to allow readers to more closely see the lower power portion of the distribution. The log of the power in watts places less emphasis in the smaller frequencies at the extreme power levels. The average power usage is 40 watts with a majority under 100 watts of power. This is not the power level emitted from the antenna with is buoyed by the relative gain of the antenna.
I examined these transmitter power reports by province, age group and license class. There was not much meaningful variation in those data apart from the differences in reported activities on microwave bands. In part, this is the limitation I mentioned of the small number of extreme values in the upper power range. The specialization of using high power in the microwave frequencies is a small number of Canadian hams, at least in this survey. It would take a new sampling design to “over sample” hams who are microwave users to get a more reliable estimate of the higher power ranges in use.
In summary, power output in Canadian amateur radio operations tends to reflect the output of the transceiver on HF bands. There is a wide variation in the category but this is a reasonable conclusion. QRP use is a bit smaller than I expected, given the popularity of portable operations (37%). But this reminds us that not all portable operations use low power. There is innovation in a small group of microwave operators. They use a significant amount of power. A later article will examine reported gain in antennas used in this band. As the microwave bands become more routinized in the hobby, these pioneering leaders will have laid a path for others to follow.
What modes of transmission are used in various amateur radio bands? We are aware of the stalwarts of SSB or CW on HF, FM on two meters, and so forth. But some still use AM and there’s the various digital modes, like the venerable RTTY. The weak signal modes implemented under the WSJT-X software (FT8 etc.) have seemed to exploded on the bands. But where? And in what share of reported use by amateur operators?
In this article, I present some of the reported modulation modes used in specific groups of bands for Canadian amateur operators. The mode distribution by band is shown in a pie chart with the percent usage for each band. (Click on the graphic for a larger image.) This allows the reader to quickly identify where a specific mode is used and how diverse modes are for a given band allocation. This depiction does not show how much a mode is used in terms of time, only how the mode’s reported use is distributed across bands.
As a convenience to readers, I have reproduced the bar graph illustrating the percent of Canadian hams reporting the use of each band in an appendix below for quick reference.
In Figure 1, AM and SSB modulation find their traditional bands. One half of the AM use resides in the 80- to 10-meter bands. It is used to a lesser extent in 160-meters, 2-meters and 6-meters with sparse usage in the remaining band allocations. There are contests organized around two meters which may well create some of that use as well as SOTA and related operations. The Magic Band of six meters is open for distance seasonally and sporadically within and outside that season. The use there is likely predicated on the propagation eccentricities of six meters. The microwave bands have small use of AM. Recalling the smaller segment of hams operating in these bands (see appendix), this use may be ardently deployed by a smaller number of active amateurs there.
The use of single sideband usage is unsurprisingly dominated by the 80-10 meter HF bands with six meters coming in a distant second. The six meter and 160 meter bands come in next at 19 and 14 percent, respectively. This is followed closely by two meters (13%). These figures tend to decline sequentially as the frequency band increases. SSB is a frequently used mode, largely in frequency bands that are fairly known to active ham operators.
Turning to the use of CW, it is an original mode for the radio amateur. There are many, many debates as to the status of how much Morse Code is used on the ham bands today. For the first time, this national survey documents both how many hams say they use CW (32%) and where they use it as shown here in this article. As displayed in Figure 2, CW is used in several bands, dominated by HF (80-10 meters) at just over one-third (35%). Two bands bookending HF finds CW a common mode: 160- and 6-meters. This mode’s usage drops off precipitously in the 70cm band, 900 MHz, and 10 GHz bands. These are followed by the 1.2 GHz band with the rest having nominal CW activity reported in this survey.
These national survey results should serve as a benchmark—along with the share of hams reporting the use of CW in the appendix—for future discussions of the status of CW operations, at least in Canada.
The rise of digital data modes (especially the wildly popular FT8) is confirmed in this national survey of hams. Some inferences can be made using signal spots (like PSKreporter) of specific transmissions and reception circuits but they do not represent the broad population of all ham operators, only signals over a transient period. The HF bands, from 80 to 10-meters, are used with digital data modes by over one-third (35%). This is followed by 6 meters (15%) and 160-meters (12%) as well as 2-meters (12%). There is nominal to significant digital data mode use on the rest of these band allocations as well. The 70cm band has, for instance, 6 percent of these amateurs using digital data modes there. Thus, digital data modes are a significant means of communicating in most all of the amateur band allocations for Canada. While HF and nearby frequencies are the prominent areas, it is only 24 GHz that show no reported digital data mode activity as of 2021.
The uses of a modern digital voice mode as well as a traditional data mode, RTTY, are summarized in Figure 3. It is no surprise to the reader who is active on 2 meter and 70cm repeaters that some 85 percent of the relative digital voice usage across bands is concentrated here. The 2-meter band has 44% while the 70cm band has 41% of digital voice use in Canada. The rest reflect nominal patterns, such as the 4 percent with digital voice operations in the 6-meter segment. These specific digital modes (DStar, etc.) are not broken out separately in this survey. The picture of where digital voice modes are used is rather clear in these results.
The traditional data mode of RTTY remains largely an HF-centered transmission style. The 80- to 10-meter bands garner almost three-fourths (71%) with the 160-meter band trailing far behind in second place at 15 percent. The remainder trail off as the frequency goes up the spectrum. RTTY is still used, perhaps during RTTY-allowed contests, but it is used almost wholly on HF and 160 meters.
The final transmission mode presented in this article is slow-scan television (SSTV). Figure 4 contains these results. Like RTTY, it’s largely an HF use pattern (52%). However, for SSTV, two meters has almost a third (31%) of the traffic in this mode. The 70cm band follows (8%) with six-meters right behind (6%). The 1.2 GHz band, gaining in popularity due to more commercial equipment being available, is used by 1 percent. The other slivers in this pie chart round down to zero percent but it does reflect small numbers of microwave-oriented ham operators making use of the spectrum. Will that grow? It will take another replication of this survey a few years in the future to determine if that prospective growth is measurable in such a broad survey like this.
Transmission modes in Canada largely conform to what many readers would expect for the traditional modes of SSB and AM. CW use may be somewhat surprising but should be compared to the prevalence of CW usage by Canadian operators (see appendix). The use of digital voice and data modes is much more diverse in some ways. Digital voice has taken flight on both repeaters but particularly the small, inexpensive “hotspots” that operate via the Internet to connect local operators to other repeater systems worldwide. Digital data modes have exploded through the proliferation of the WSJT-X software and it’s variants. Many hams in the public sphere decry the use of, for instance, FT8, over using voice or CW modes. However, it has made many bands more active as can be seen by others analyzing the online databases of observations such as WSPR, PSKReporter, and the RBN sites. Such is how behavioral change occurs in large, moderately organized groups like amateur radio. It is the collective behavior that shapes the usage of a technological innovation like weak-signal modes and such.
My overall assessment of these results is that the Canadian ham bands are both stable, in the main, and innovating in some frequency bands. I say this partly because the microwave regions have a pluralistic set of modes in use today. This is undoubtedly the result of experimentation as well as competitive contesting or DXing activities. The combination of modes plays well into the future growth of both the operational efficiency as well as the market development for commercial products. The recent release by Icom of their IC-905 transceiver is a case in point.
I hasten to note this. Some readers will invariably say, “But I don’t see that [result]…” Sure, an individual ham operator’s observations either on the bands or elsewhere are a relatively unique way of gathering observations. They are not consistent across observations as people look at the world in differing ways. And, they do not garner insight into a collective national view of what is consistently obtained in a large-scale survey such as that for the RAC Survey 2021. Please bear that in mind with regard to these results as you read them.
Appendix: Band Usage Bar Chart from Full Report
The 2021 RAC Survey asked about the use of frequency band segments and hours per month devoted to each one. This identifies where Canadian amateur operators transmit to complement what type of communications they reported (see Full Report). The bands used and the amount of time per month reported by survey participants provide the contours of these behaviors in Canada. They also provide RAC with demonstrable data for the Canadian regulator as to how these frequency allocations are being utilized by the amateur radio service in that country.
I begin with the share of hams reporting the bands and band ranges they use in a typical month (see Figure 1). The results are fairly clear, reflecting no surprise at the dominant bands, but give empirical contours to those used by smaller segments of Canadian hams.
This chart shows that two-meters is the common band for over 90 percent of Canadian amateurs. The HF bands, from 80-10 meters, are second at over 80 percent. The UHF band of 430 MHz is used by two-thirds (67%). These three bands are used in a typical month by a majority of hams in Canada. They are followed by the Magic Band of six-meters (46%) at less than one-half. The Top Band, 160 meters, is used by almost a third (30%) of these hams. The 220 MHz band captures about one-fifth of Canada’s operators. Above this frequency, are the microwave allocations, including Super HF at above 3 Ghz. None reach a tenth in reported usage and systematically decline as the frequency goes higher. It is likely that the need to homebrew much of the equipment to operate in these frequencies is an inhibitor for their use. This may change in the future as commercial manufacturers get into this market segment.
Is 2 Meters or HF King of the Bands?
Operating Patterns Among Canadian Amateurs:
Results from the RAC Survey 2021
Frank M. Howell, PhD K4FMH
A total of 194,174 hours per month were reported by Canadian amateurs to have been used over 15 bands during 2021. The average is 93 with an estimated standard error of 5.4 hours. The variation in these reported hours is large, with a standard deviation of 249! (This is not unusual in a highly skewed distribution.) The median is 34 hours per month, or just over an hour a day. This means that one-half spend more with the other half in the survey reporting less. These statistics are only for hams reporting any hours of usage per month (a total of 121 respondents reported zero hours). This demonstrates that many operators are active, perhaps one hour per day or so while a smaller segment report spending vast amounts of time on one or more of these bands.
These summaries should be qualified with a small anomaly. One element of modern amateur operations is “always-on” monitoring receivers or beacons. These could be APRS on 2-meters, transmit beacons on other bands, scanning VHF bands or above, and a host of others. The survey asked an open-ended question about hours of use on a given frequency band. Some respondents added text statements when they replied with 720 hours per month (24 hours x 30 days) to the effect that beacons or other “always-on” transmitters or (scanning) receivers were used in their shack on that band segment. Some of the extreme hours reported per month likely reflect these “always-on” monitoring activities.
A total of 194,174 hours per month were reported by Canadian amateurs to have been used over 15 bands during 2021.
Operating Patterns Among Canadian Amateurs:
Results from the RAC Survey 2021
Frank M. Howell, PhD K4FMH
These patterns can be seen in Figure 2, containing two box plots of total hours reported. On the left, the number of hours is concentrated around the median (represented by the dark line in the middle of the “box”) of about 34 but a share of respondents responded to the question with increasingly larger totals. The 3,000-hour total clearly reflects multiple radios in operation at the same time by a given operator in the survey. Many of those reporting less than this highest value also fit into this operating style. The complementary box plot (right) illustrates how the bulk of hams vary in hours of operation on all bands. This is expressed in a log transformation of total hours. This graph of the log (LN) of hours reported shows the distribution in a way that is not dominated by the extreme high values reported in the survey. This set of graphs show that there is a small portion of Canadian amateurs who report large numbers of hours on multiple band segments whereas the high majority say they operate around the median of 34 hours or so.
However, the more representative pattern of behavior is a spread of hours that varies by band. To best understand these patterns, we consider the “time portfolio” that a ham might allocate to the hobby. The median would suggest about an hour a day (which may be bundled to several on a weekend but none on a few week days). What share of time in the total number of hours that amateurs report spending each month is allocated to each of these band segments? In other words, whatever the total time spent on the hobby, where is it spent in the frequency spectrum?
I computed the total time as described above. The reported hours on each band were converted into a percent of the total time spent per month by band. These percentages, which total to 100 percent for an individual respondent, are shown in Figure 3 as a box plot of the distribution by band. This represents a time portfolio characterizing each amateur in the survey.
Two patterns jump out to me in Figure 3. Some hams spend most of their time on 2 meters and 430 mHz while others are mostly HF operators. This is not a surprising result for most readers. There are small numbers of hams who are effectively “band specialists.” Note those near the 100 percent mark on various microwave bands or 160 meters or the lowest bands, 630 and 2200 meters. Some operate mostly on six meters. The bands with low medians but a skewed distribution toward the highest end illustrate these specializations.
It is important to note the dominant patterns of frequency usage while also recognizing that not all hams follow suit. Some choose to be band specialists in the time they spend participating on these frequency allocations. These are the first such data ever reported on a national sample of licensed amateurs so it is a benchmark against the various impressions that most hams have of how bands are utilized on a routine basis.
I have organized comparisons by age group for each prominent frequency band: Low Frequency, HF, Very and Ultra High Frequency, and Super High Frequency (see Full Report for details). These results will tell us about age differences in how bands are used. Do younger hams use particular bands than more senior ones? Are there sharp differences by age in the adoption of higher bands? Age patterns can inform us about future band allocation policies so they can be critical bits of data for national advocacy groups and spectrum regulators.
I begin with low frequency (LF) bands, including 2200, 630 and 160 meters as represented in a stacked barchart (Figure 4). Each bar represents the banduse composition for a given age group with specific labels to make reading them a bit easier.
As a long-standing band allocation, the Top Band of 160-meters is used by every age group. This is particularly so for those over age 30. But the newer allocations of 630- and 2200-meters are sparingly used among all ages. Likely because of the required antenna lengths and land-use restrictions, the lowest frequency band (2200-meters) has, at most, a mere 3 percent participation in any age groups. The 630-meter band has at most a 5 percent usage rate, this among twenty-year-olds. Surprising results perhaps but it is informative to more fully grasp how the newer LF bands are reportedly being used.
The results for HF include the Magic Band of six-meters are shown in Figure 5. There are few surprises in this graph. The 80 through 10-meter bands are enjoyed by over half of the hams in Canada for those over age 20. (This is likely due to licensing patterns.) These are the most long-standing allocations where the widest variety of commercially available equipment is available to the amateur radio market. Use of 80-10 meters slightly increases with age (e.g., 20-year-olds at 53% vs 80-year-olds at 94%). The HF bands are in good stead regarding dominant use by hams in Canada.
For six meters, use is fairly constant at just less than one-half of Canadian ham operators play in the periodically open Magic Band. This really does not change much by age. The attraction to this low-opening, high-reward band is the ability to work DX during band openings. A minor attraction is local and regional communications, often using repeaters operational on the band. To link this band back to Figure 3’s time portfolio, note the share of hams who spend most of their time on six meters.
The result of the highest reported usage (33%) among the small number of teens in the survey should be taken cautiously since the actual use in the population could be different than the other age groups with higher numbers of respondents (i.e., there is a low number of teens in the survey).
In short, the results for usage in the high frequency to six-meter bands is largely what would be expected by most amateur operators. But knowing the age patterns does empirically illustrate how young hams get into HF at those ages, too. This grounds the survey into the type of results that can be more reliably trusted for findings that are unexpected, too. The intriguing result of the “band specialists” for six meters await openings to operate tell us about another segment of the amateur radio hobby in Canada.
Turning to VHF and UHF bands, Figure 6 also shows no surprises: two meters is king! About 90 percent or more of every age group says they work two meters in a typical month, hands-down the universal frequency band for Canadian amateurs (see Figure 1). This is followed by the 430 MHz band which is a bit more popular among younger hams than older ones who tend to favor 2 meters. The 220 MHz band universally holds a slice of about one-fifth (15-24%) of the survey respondents’ reported usage.
Now, we often hear: why are the repeaters dead? I interpret these survey results with reference to Figure 3 above regarding the time portfolio spent on 2 meters. Most Canadian hams say they spend between 10 and 50 percent of ALL their amateur radio hobby on the 2 Meter band. I suspect that this is due to the prevalence of short-lived Nets that are on weekly activation cycles but this is speculation. So many hams check-in, have nothing to report, and are quickly off of the Net. Some hams may check-in to many Nets while others just a few (or none).
This time-targeted behavior pattern hypothesis may not explain these survey results versus the mantra that we all tend to hear but it’s one possibility for sure. It does beg the question of what “dead” means in this sense. No one there when a given ham listens for a few minutes? No one responding to a dropped call sign on the frequency? Given these survey results, the use of “dead” may be hyperbole.
Moving into the microwave and Super High Frequency ranges involving the highest band allocations, Figure 7 shows these results of band usage by age. (I have included the 900 Mhz to 2.3 Ghz bands here for convenience, technically not part of the SHF range.) The barriers to getting into SHF operations differ markedly from other bands. There are fewer off-the-shelf commercial radios and associated equipment so homebrewing is almost a perquisite. The equipment and space for homebrewing, for instance, a transverter for an HF or VHF/UHF radio or a horn antenna is not available to every ham operator as they can be very expensive relative to VHF/UHF or HF radios and antennas.
With this preface, there are significant age-graded patterns of usage in this frequency allocation region. Figure 6 displays a stacked bar chart by age group of Super HF band use. This region of band allocation is sparsely used at the highest band of 24 GHz. The users are exclusively in the 40- to 70-year-old groups. On the other end, the 900 MHz region is used by all age groups, especially younger hams. The 1.2 GHz band has a significant group of users, between a fifth and a third of those from age 40 to 80 or more. This compares well with the 5 GHz (5650-5925 MHz) band. The 2 GHz region is close behind. With these relatively new allocations as compared to HF, for instance, there is likely to be increased use. The concentration of use in large urban centers may foster increased adoption since there are more operators and Elmers available in those cities.
With this in mind, Figure 7 shows that younger hams do operate in the various SHF bands (slightly less than one third). There is a spread of participants across these individual bands, too. Most of it is in the 900 Mhz to 5 Mhz range as 10 Ghz and above require quite specialized equipment. As more commercially manufactured equipment comes on the market, this highest set of bands may perk up, too.
There is a healthy use of the amateur radio spectrum in Canada as reported by the hams in this national survey. Two meters is the common band for the vast majority. But HF is a dominant place where Canadian amateurs get on the air, too. The age patterns in band use are not as prevalent as they are in modes of operation (see Full Report and previous blog articles). This bodes well for future band allocations as use is often said to drive allocations.
It is good to see the presence of hams in bands above HF. While some of this is very specialized technology at this point in time, experimentation and innovation in the SHF region will likely yield grand benefits. This national survey confirms these patterns of behavior rather than rely on what is technically hearsay by individual hams. These results should also have importance for manufacturers and, especially, small innovators. They establish a market for such products. We now know that the bands above VHF/UHF have a significant segment of amateurs participating in activities on these frequency regions. Moreover, the mainline HF and VHF/UHF markets are stable, a safe and sound target for product design and sales.
The Churches and Chapels on the Air coordinator, John Wresdall G3XYF, sent this notice out this morning:
Dear All,
thanks to all those who have let me know they are operating in CHOTA 2024
on 14 Sept . If you intend to put your church or chapel on the air please let me know. The latest list is periodically uploaded to the WACRAL site when Mike G0RBB can manage it.
73
John G3XYF
John’s email for this is: jhwresdell@gmail.com. He is good on QRZ.com
Note: CHOTA 2024 is September 4, 2024. See other posts on this blog about CHOTA. The main site for this event is: https://wacral.org/chota-2024/. My church group had a blast last year!
One of the pressing issues facing all amateur radio organizations in the modern world is what appears to be a rapidly aging set of participants. We mostly base this belief on various observations at in-person amateur radio activities since licensing bodies rarely ever collect or release birth dates with their license data. (Not all release actual license records themselves.) The issue is whether we are simply seeing ham operators who participate in these venue events or is the ham population actually aging as much as our eyes tell us? I present national data on the aging patterns of Canadian amateurs in addition to projections for the future. The results are sobering for they are predicated on a clear demographic pattern in the developed world itself.
“..there simply will not be enough members of these youngest cohorts to replace their current age segment even if all parties went into recruitment modes with their “hair on fire”.”
From every data source that I have seen or analyzed, the population of amateur radio licensees worldwide is substantially graying.1 RAC Survey 2021 respondents were asked what is your age group and given a choice of mostly decade-length age ranges. The 2021 Census of Canada age-by-year data were extracted from Statistics Canada and collapsed to fit the same age ranges (see Final Report). These data are presented in a population pyramid in Figure 1. The Canadian population (left) and RAC Survey 2021 of amateurs (right) add a further confirmation of this aging amateur radio population. Ham operators in the survey are far below the population at less than age fifty but increasingly over the population distribution after the half-century mark. In the sixties and above, amateur operator percentages are over double that of the population at large.
What does this population distribution comparison mean for amateur radio in Canada? There are at least two elements to the demographic equation here. If we think of amateur radio as a behavior, a hobby or a pastime that occurs over the life course of individuals, then the behavior of being a ham operator may be age-related regardless of the historical period.2 Or, alternatively, it could be an historical period behavior that is prominent during an age range (or birth cohort) of one or more adjacent periods in history. In simpler terms, is amateur radio mostly a Baby Boom-era hobby that is scheduled to recede into a much smaller pursuit? There are many behaviors that do largely fade away as the participants age through other stages of life. Some, however, begin at later stages without younger groups joining the activity until they reach that age range. I will show evidence of both through my analysis of this national Canadian survey.
This life course perspective recognizes the effects on hobby behavior that are frequently revealed by hams themselves: work, marriage, family formation, competing interests, and others. Additional investigations with relevant data are required to answer these questions. But one aspect that is critical involves the future Canadian population itself. How is it scheduled to age over the next several decades? This will indeed shape the hobby in significant ways, given current circumstances in the hobby.
Statistics Canada has published age-specific population projections for the nation. These have been used to prepare Figure 2 with various projection scenarios (left) and age-specific projections from 2021 to 2050 (right). As is common, the “medium growth” scenario was selected to present the scheduled growth of age groups. Shown in the purple line (left), this set of assumptions for population growth fall in the middle of those with high-growth or slow-aging models versus low-growth or fast-aging parameters. They are generally the most reliable to use for analyses such as this.
The results in the right panel for each age group that were configured to match the RAC Survey age groups tell us that the population in Canada will grow in the middle-age categories and in the most senior ones. Those in the twenties through fifties will top the age pyramid by 2050, followed by those most senior residents in their seventies and over. The youngest population of teens (10 through 19) will be far smaller. This is a significant signal to policy-makers in Canada with two clear implications for amateur radio in Canada.
One is that the age groups of 60-80 years of age, now dominating amateur radio as the RAC Survey suggests, will simply disappear as they age-out to infirmity or becoming Silent Keys. Yet, the projected number of persons in these age groups are scheduled to actually grow in number over the forecast period.
A second implication is that teens will be a relatively scarce recruitment commodity in terms of the age pyramid. There will simply not be enough of them to replace those Baby Boomers now dominating the hobby. The much higher rates for the recruitment of younger people are significantly higher than has been the case in the recent past. Compare Figure 1 Canadian population versus estimated amateur radio population for these age groups to also see this imbalance as follows. The ratio of the population percent to the amateur operator percent tells us what recruitment improvement would be necessary to actually fit the population.
To aid in illustrating what the demographic patterns for the Canadian age structure mean for amateur radio, consider what rates of “recruitment” would be necessary to simply replace the current share of licensed hams by age group. I’ve summarized a simple table (Table 1) of this “additional recruitment success” that would be needed to just maintain what we have today in Canada for those below age 50.
While it would only take recruiting 1.5 times the current number in the age 40 range, it becomes increasing more challenging as each age group gets younger. For those in their thirties, when typical family obligations are most demanding, it would require 4.6 times the current number to be recruited base on the future population projections for this age segment. The dramatically higher rates are for those in their twenties (16.7 times) and teens (20 times) make it simply unfeasible to realistically believe that current methods of age-specific recruitment will come close to securing these levels of required newcomes into the hobby. To repeat, in practical terms, there simply will not be enough members of these youngest cohorts to replace their current age segment even if all parties went into recruitment modes with their “hair on fire”.
Demography can be destiny. But it does not have to be so.
While the population demography reflects a challenge for the future of amateur radio in Canada, it is important to more fully understand how the hobby is pursued over the ham’s “career” as a licensed amateur operator. There is a notion, perhaps rooted in the Baby Boomer and preceding generations, harkening back to the emergence of amateur radio itself, that young people get exposed to amateur radio, get licensed and continue their amateur radio careers in a continuous fashion. (For more and an empirical investigation, see Howell 2021) This would make the teen years the principal period in the life course for recruitment into the hobby. In the survey, however, there is only modest evidence of this pattern.
RAC Survey 2021 participants were asked how many years they had held a license as well as have been active in the hobby. The graphic in Figure 3 displays histograms of the frequency of hams in each year bin. On the left is length of holding a license (tenure). The right panel is the same display except for years of activity. The average years of license tenure is about 26 while 22 is the average of years active. The variation in each measure is about the same, a standard deviation of around 17-18 years. The experience levels among Canadian amateurs are lengthy but it is also quite variable.
There are two things to hold out as important from this graphic. One is that survey responses bunch around newcomers (or zero to 4 years) or 25-30 years of holding a license. Activity is about the same pattern except the bunching of respondents is not as pronounced as license tenure. The “careers” of activity in amateur radio tend to vary quite a bit. A second is that these two variables are not linked to the same amateur. How many have activity periods that last for most of their license tenure? What lengths of active periods characterize Canadian hams?
Hams who are in the most senior age groups report years of license tenure suggesting that the teen years were when they became licensed. Moreover, a large number of them say they have been “active” all of their licensed years.3 This notion, however, does not fit many respondents in the survey. The latter are large enough to beg the question of how valid is this traditional idea with which we often characterize all amateurs. Like many stereotypes, there are significant popular examples that fit but it also mischaracterizes a larger share of ham operators.
We have visualized this linkage through a scatterplot of ham radio activity by license tenure with age groups identified (see Figure 4). A scatter plot is an X-Y plotting of individual data points along the data values of each variable. The age group for each survey respondent is shown by a distinct color.
There are no respondents above the line in this plot since activity is predicated in this survey upon holding a license. The diagonal line of hams reflects those who have been active their entire careers in ham radio. Only among those in the most senior age groups (e.g., 70 and over) supports the commonly held pattern of getting licensed at a teen or young adult and staying the course. There are many of these amateurs but they are far from being the dominant group.
The large number of data points moving away from this diagonal (toward the lower right) reflect hams who got licensed and have not been “active” nearly as long as those on the straight diagonal line. The most senior groups reveal many who were not licensed early in their lives but significantly later. Thus, these data illustrate that our conventional image of the amateur who gets licensed early in life and maintains that hobby activity throughout is largely a stereotype that nevertheless fits a smaller share of the population. These patterns of activity are directly pertinent to policies for recruitment into the hobby. They illustrate clearly the significant market for late-in-life hams. See Howell (2013) for another U.S. survey with data on late-in-life ham operators.
To further illustrate inactivity over the ham’s career, Figure 5 uses box plots of the simple difference between years licensed and years of activity (i.e., years licensed – years active). It’s broken out by age group. Box plots show the data around the center point of the median at the middle of the box. In this case, zero provides a bounding so that there is only one end of the distribution of survey respondents.
These data are highly skewed toward higher periods of less activity (“inactivity”). The median lines in the boxes are barely visible. There is a trail of hams who report a growing gap of inactivity as age increases. Some get licensed but drop out of the hobby, at least for some periods of time. For example, for the most senior group, some have been licensed-but-inactive for 40 or more years. Over their license tenure, a significant group of hams fall away from practicing the hobby.4 This licensed but inactive segment represents a ripe market for recruitment back into amateur radio activities. I will note in passing that we do not have any consensus for what “active” in the hobby means.
These results describe an emerging demographic shift in Canada that will affect the amateur radio hobby. There will simply not be enough younger people to replace those Baby Boomers now dominating the hobby. But what is the fundamental reason behind these population projections leading to fewer younger people in the decades ahead? It is now something unique to Canada but common to all developed countries. In Figure 6, I’ve reproduced a graph showing the total fertility rate (TFR) over time among a number of countries. This was recently published in the highly respected demography journal, The Lancet. The gray line at the fertility rate of 2.1 is the replacement level for a given population. High income countries include Canada, the U.S. and the UK, among others. They have been below replacement level since around 1980. Thus, the issue of why official Canadian population projections show that younger age groups will be diminished in the near term is due to this falling total fertility rate among high income countries around the world.
Returning to the issue of these demographic patterns for amateur radio, the rates for the recruitment of younger people to achieve mere replacement are significantly higher than has been the case in the recent past. This should not be misconstrued to suggest that it would be a waste of time to expose young people to amateur radio as a recruitment method. It may well be an incubator effect of planting the seed that will be sown later in the life course. The short-term efforts should not ignore middle-age prospects for the hobby. They have three key characteristics that make them prime targets for marketing. One, they tend to be “empty nesters” without dependent children. Two, they are at or near their peak-earning years with perhaps the highest discretionary income they will ever have. Three, they have more time on their hands for the pursuit of hobbies. The demographic fact is that there will also be more of them in the near term for effective recruitment into the hobby.
These results encourage strategic and efficient methods for RAC and its membership clubs and associated organizations to reach both the youth population as well as later-in-life adults. Demography does not have to be destiny if these actions are taken soon. But it will be if heads are placed solidly into the sand.
Notes
1.For other data on the aging ham operator population in the United States and the United Kingdom, see https://k4fmh.com/2021/08/28/the-secret-storm-approaching-cw-contesting/ or https://k4fmh.com/2021/03/31/uk-regulator-ofcom-releases-ham-licenses-by-age-compares-favorably-with-us-estimates/.
2.The “life course” is the routine and mostly orderly progression of the transition of individuals among various recognized stages of life. The broadest definition is “The entirety of individual’s life from birth to death and the typical set of circumstances an individual experiences in a given society as they age.” (Source: https://sociologydictionary.org/life-course/).
3.This question wording leaves the definition of activity up to the respondent. I’ve asked many hams what being “active” in the hobby means. I received a wide-ranging variety of responses that do not identify a singular coherent defining concept.
4.In analysis not shown, there is virtually no distinction in reported inactivity during the amateur career and current RAC membership. We cannot determine whether past membership patterns is linked to periods of inactivity during the full period of license tenure.
References
Frank M. Howell. 2013. “Survey of Members 2013.” ARRL Delta Division Report. Online resource: http://arrldelta.org/dd-final13.pdf.
Frank M. Howell. 2021. “The lost Tribe, the Pied Piper and the Executive.” The Spectrum Monitor October, 7-12. Available for download as a PDF here.
Frank M. Howell and Scott Wright. 2021. https://foxmikehotel.com/aging-and-radio-contesting/
Results from the RAC Survey 2021
In a previous blog post, I showed the popularity of some 39 specific operating activities among Canadian hams using the national RAC Survey 2021. There were very small age differences in the average total number of activities. However, there are indeed clear age patterns in specific operating activities. This article presents those patterns as well as in the overall themes of operating.1 There are telling distinctions in these age-related operating preferences, ones that will likely follow the hobby over the next few decades.
Age Group Patterns in Specific Activities. Age differences occur in the adoption of some of the newest technologies emerging in the hobby. It is not surprising to the reader that this was by younger hams. Conversely, some long-standing activities with traditional appeal hold lower levels of engagement by younger amateurs. The line charts in Figure 1 compare a set of traditional activities with more recently-emerging ones, like digital data modes, that have become much talked about in the hobby. These represent some key age patterns in the RAC Survey of 2021.
If it’s portable and digital, these younger hams are more likely to report that they are doing it.
Frank K4FMH
Using traditional voice modes, whether SSB, AM or FM, has been a staple of ham radio for decades as has the original transmission mode, CW. Both are used at lower rates among young Canadian hams while they reach their respective zenith among the most senior group. Comparing this top panel with that on the bottom, there is a corollary with digital modes and mobile or portable operations. Younger hams say they do these activities at higher rates than older hams. The trend, like the comparable ones in the top panel, are mostly continuous and downward.
Chasing DX becomes more appealing during middle age and continues until senior status. The same is true for HF rag-chewing. These two activities may well typify many senior hams to the extent that these survey results reflect the country’s population of amateurs. By sharp contrast, it’s the data modes of all stripes, including satellites (including ARISS), drone operations, and telemetry that have higher participation rates among younger age groups. If it’s portable and digital, these younger hams are more likely to report that they are doing it.
This begs the question of Elmering activity. There is a higher percentage of teens that report this activity of coaching other hams than any other single group. But this age group is a small sample size (n=8) so it’s not a reliable estimate. The more conservative interpretation is that Elmering is mostly for those successively older in age. Peer teaching by young hams, however, is a clearly desirable goal.2 This survey just did not capture it due to the lower response rate among younger hams.
A strikingly age-graded activity is CW operating. Up to the age of 49, CW use is lower than 20 percent, or one-fifth of the full survey respondents. This increase to almost one-third for those in their fifties, and increases to a majority among those eighty or over. While there is anecdotal evidence that CW interest and practice is growing among younger groups in Canada and the U.S., this new data on activity participation casts a pall on any broad generalizations from those “feel-good” media stories. CW operation does appear at-risk of becoming more of a niche activity over the next couple of decades based on these demographic patterns.3
A final traditional activity, the restoration of classic radios, seems very fitting to be something that connects a younger period in life with an older one. This trend is found in the top panel but just not as dramatic as one could expect. It rises past ten percent during the fifties, increasing until the seventies among survey respondents.
Age Patterns in Themes of Operating. Because a number of these activities appear to overlap, such as DXing and Contesting or Public Service and Emergency Communications, I created summaries of homogeneous operating themes from them (see full report for details). These are illustrated in Table 1.
Because of the concern about age in the amateur radio space, I have constructed line charts by age group for these themes of operating activity in Figure 2. I separated more conventional activities into the left panel and newer activities in the right (except for Mentoring). There are clear age patterns in these graphs. They tend to confirm the age patterns in the individual activities but they give a broader picture to the overall patterns.
Younger hams tend to be engaged in QRP portable activities as well as digital modes more than older operators. They tend to not get involved in competition, in contrast to much social media to the contrary. In addition, younger hams do not report traditional building activities or operations (CW) nearly as much as middle-aged or more senior amateurs. These are important findings for they fly in the face of some contemporary thinking by many in amateur radio.
The activities of competing against other hams as well as traditional experimental work and operations do not go above average activity levels until these hams reach age 50 and above. Traditional activities remain at these levels by age group. Competition tends to trail off after age 80, a result also observed in twenty years of U.S. ARRL Sweepstakes Contest data (Howell and Wright, 2021). They tend to be average or below in QRP portable activities and digital mode operations.
In the right panel of Figure 2, mentoring is something engaged in by all age groups above the average score with the exception of the twenty-year-old group. Younger operators report much higher participation in remote control operations as well as satellite work. Balloon operations are the third above average activity for younger operators. Super HF band work is above average for those from the twenties until the seventies. For the most senior hams, no activity reaches an average score except mentoring.
The findings shown here for younger hams versus those in the older Baby Boomer generation are much talked about in amateur radio. These national survey data from Canada confirm some of those observations but in specific ways. Younger hams are engaged much more in computer-based digital and portable operating activities that are newer developments in the hobby. The converse is true for more senior hams who say they operate in traditional ways but not as much digital or portable. The practice of CW mode is a rather clear example. Only some 15 percent or thereabouts of younger operators use CW while over 40 percent do among senior hams. Note that these are patterns for which some individual exceptions on the margins can also be true but the overall patterns remain. There is a clear age-graded transition afoot in behavioral practices within the amateur radio hobby.
Age-graded activities identify sectors of the hobby that may grow or decline in the future. Advocacy and Elmering can perhaps change those patterns but these baseline data are important to benchmark such future impacts. The irony is that the very activity of Elmering exhibits these same age-graded patterns: senior hams engage more in coaching than do younger hams. Thus, will relative youth reject advice to engage more in traditional operating activities when they themselves tend to embrace newly-emerging ones? Comparisons of the 2021 survey with another in the future will tell the tale of such potential change.
References
Frank M. Howell and Scott Wright. 2021. “Generational Change in ARRL Contesting: The Pending Demographic Cliff Ahead.” Retrieved at https://foxmikehotel.com/aging-and-radio-contesting/.
1. The full report of my analysis, along with data from Statistics Canada and ISED, is published on the FoxMikeHotel.com website as Operating Patterns Among Canadian Amateurs: Results from the RAC Survey 2021. Please see that report for details of this national survey of Canadian hams.
2. In Appendix B of the full report at FoxMikeHotel.com, there is a chart (Figure B2) illustrating that participating in organized youth training activities (JOTA, YOTA) kicks in during the late twenties, peaking during middle age. Thus, the youngest hams do not appear to be engaged in peer teaching per se but younger adults do get involved in increasing proportions until their fifties.
3. Evidence from 20 years of the ARRL Sweepstakes Contest participation appears in Howell and Wright (2021). These results show a clear parallel of an incipient CW contesting decline in the ARRL Sweepstakes CW Contest.
Results from the 2021 RAC National Survey
Author’s note: a version of this appeared in the May 2024 issue of The Canadian Amateur, available to members only. I retain copyright to the material. After numerous requests from non-members of RAC, I have posted the material here for all to read.
What are the most popular activities among Canadian hams? Each one is likely to say it’s what they do. Now we have national survey results to give us a more complete picture rather than a collection of comments at the local ham radio club or convention.
The Radio Amateurs of Canada (RAC) periodically conducts surveys to obtain objective information on the current status of amateur radio in Canada. The national RAC Survey of 2021 focused on operating patterns among radio amateurs, including how active they are in various specific aspects of the hobby and some key demographics. Paul Coverdell VE3ICY constructed the survey instrument (see his TCA article in the January 2021 issue). I completed a full report of my analysis of these data, along with data from Statistics Canada and ISED, which is published on the my FoxMikeHotel.com website as Operating Patterns Among Canadian Amateurs: Results from the RAC Survey 2021. This article is taken from that full report. Future papers will contain other elements of this survey.
Here I show how central some operating activities are and how others, and while ardently pursued by some, are much more niche concerns in the overall ham radio community. These results are important for both RAC and the rank-and-file amateur in Canada to know. It also helps define markets for product manufacturers (e.g., satellite equipment, etc.) as well as provide a benchmark for survey data collection in other countries on their amateur radio population.
A total of 39 operating activities were presented to respondents during the survey, asking the respondent for a declaration of their involvement. These specific activities widely ranged from casual operating to sophisticated telemetry data modes.
I sorted these responses into a bar chart from highest to lowest percent participation in the survey (Figure 1; click image for larger version). Here are the results by importance to hams in the survey. Note that individuals engage in more than one activity.
Dominant Operating Activities. While the median percent participation in all these activities is about 17 percent, the activities with the highest engagement are clear relative to this baseline. It should be little surprise that casual operating and voice modes are the top activities. Three activities reach a majority level of participation: casual operations, using traditional voice transmissions, and digital modes. This is not shocking but the level of use in digital transmission might be a surprise to most readers.
Over two-thirds (70%) operate in what they consider a casual style. Traditional voice modes, like SSB, AM or FM, are second (59%). What may be a surprise is where digital modes rank: in third place (52%). Fully one-half of Canadian amateurs now operate digital modes. This considerably out-ranks the venerable and original mode of CW (32%) where only a third say they now use Morse Code for communication. With local (46%) and HF rag-chewing (37%) registering at double the median participation rate, it is clear that hams in Canada, at times, just enjoy chatting with others. A more formal style, Net participation, is engaged in by some 43 percent.
Contesting and Chasing DX. Contesting as a pursuit is popular among a smaller group of less than one-third in size (29%). But new forms of “contesting” have emerged through portable operations such as POTA, SOTA and related activities outside the usual shack (37%).1 Fox-hunting is followed by almost one-in-ten (9%) Canadian hams. Low power QRP operations, regardless of location, is popular in about one-fifth (23%). Mobile operation is on par with local rag-chewing in popularity (47%). Operating Special Event Stations gets about 15 percent (14.9%) engaged. Thus, the emergence of portable operating, especially in combination with formal log-submissions via Parks or Summits on the Air, has surpassed in numbers of practitioners in the traditional contesting operations. This may be a shock to some in the contesting community who have been part of the establishment of amateur radio activities for decades. These objective survey results document evidence to the contrary.2
Pursuing distant contacts (DXing) is as popular as, for instance, checking into various Nets. Some 42 percent identify as DXers. The related activity of collecting QSL cards per se falls in at only a 20 percent level of engagement. (The electronic QSL records, such as LoTW, eQSL, etc., may have supplanted paper cards for many hams.) As could be expected with the investment in money and time commitment, being involved in DXpeditions themselves is rare (5%).
Public Service. Public service in emergency communications engages about a third (37%) and more general similar activities (30%). Related to this includes weather and storm monitoring (14%). Formal traffic handling (6.2%) maintains a small but dedicated group. Drone operations might be considered in the public service arena. While it’s a new technology for amateur radio, there is a nominal set of hams in the survey (5%) who say they use it. The venerable APRS network is used by a quarter of operators (25.2%).3 Taken together, there is a significant share of Canadian amateurs engaged in emergency and related public service activities.
Building Devices.Designing and building amateur radio equipment, especially antennas, captures a surprising share of activity. Antenna construction is the third most popular activity result at 47 percent. Homebrewing and kit-building is an activity of over a third of these respondents (36%). The restoration of classic rigs and putting them on the air attract a small group (13%) but one more highly attractive to hams than a dozen other aspects of the hobby. The homebrewing roots of the hobby appear to remain alive and well.
Elmering and Coaching. The mentoring and coaching of other hams, especially newly licensed ones, is a practice that takes time. It may not be for every amateur operator. Only 17 percent (17.3%) report engaging in this activity. Related engagement for youth involves several activities, such as JOTA, TDOTA and YOTA, and garners about 8 percent of hams in Canada into their support.
Space and Satellites.Various aspects of amateur radio in space are popular. Contacting the International Space Station (ARISS) is now an attraction for many (14%). Satellite operations in general are comparable in their share of practitioners (16%). Bouncing signals off of the moon (EME) is a specialty of some 5 percent of these hams. Using amateur radio for radio astronomy, a crossover field for astronomy proper, has a small contingent (3%) of followers.
Shortwave Listening. Many amateur operators began as shortwave listeners. Over a quarter (27%) in this survey report being engaged in SWL activities. This is on par, by comparison, with formal contesting or QRP operations. Perhaps the reader is somewhat surprised by this result. SWLing is nonetheless as or more popular than contesting, public service or QRP operating.
Niche Activities. A number of miscellaneous activities may not fit into these broader sets of activities. These include: remote operations (10.2%), VHF/UHF weak signal operations (17%), off-road communications (8.2%), high altitude ballooning (2.6%) and telemetry (2.4%). Each of these may fit into other larger activities but stand on their own in this survey. These results serve as a baseline for future surveys repeating these activity questions so that their growth may be objectively determined.
A related question is just how many different activities do Canadian ham operators engage in? In other words, how specialized is the hobby? The total number of activities that RAC Survey 2021 participants reported reflects just how active each ham operator is regardless of the activity’s specific focus. It can theoretically range from 0-38 in total.
Total Number of Activities. A sum of all activities by age group is shown in the accompanying chart as a histogram (left) and by age group (right) in a bar chart (Figure 2; click image for larger version). Since we have no data with which to compare the total portfolio of an amateur operator’s activities, it’s important to examine how Canadian hams vary in pursuing them.4
Survey respondents say they participate in as few as one and as many as 29 different activities. The median number is nine. The left panel shows that there is a skew to the right side of the distribution where the most highly active hams are located. This shows that may hams do just a few things while a smaller group do very many activities. One might ask is this extreme activity related to the age of the amateur operator?
The right panel shows that the medians (dark bar in the box) do not vary much across each age group. There is some change from the teens to the thirty-year-old group but the pattern smooths out from there.
These hams are not followed as they “age,” so we cannot truly speak about more specialization occurring from the teen years into middle age. It could be the historical period in which each ham got licensed and socialized into the hobby, perhaps by an Elmer coach, that shapes the specific activities. The results here, however, show little change in the overall average portfolio of activities by hams of all age groups. The top group (at 10) is only three higher than the bottom group (at 7). This is a good sign for continuing engagement regardless of age as measured in 2021.
These nationwide survey results show that amateur radio activities in Canada are more than simply alive and well. Some hams are very highly engaged in a wide variety of activities. While it is often remarked that ham radio is a hobby-of-hobbies, the well-entrenched activities of casual QSOs with fellow hams is clearly a common core pastime. These are predominately using voice or digital modes although CW operation is practiced by one-third. Building things, especially antennas, is a very popular activity so the homebrew culture remains active today. Emergency communications and contesting tend to round-out the traditional operating areas.
It also seems clear that Canadian hams may be a diverse lot in terms of how they spend their time in the hobby. Some engage in many more activities than others. I will examine the amount of time spent in the hobby in a future article.
The overall activity levels are not lower among older age groups than younger ones. Age does not appear to impact the average of the simple number of reported activities. But it may be that Canadian hams of different ages do vary in the specific sets of activities which may shape the contours of the hobby in the decades to come. That will be the focus of my next article using these national survey data collected by RAC which will provide a clearer picture of how age-graded some activities are today.
Notes:
1. It is debatable by many as to whether these constitute “contesting.” The participants and supporting organizations do keep score of contacts and submitted logs. They issue milestone awards. I consider them akin to contest activities because of these shared characteristics regardless of their recognized status as such.
2.In the Appendix of the full report, it is shown that about two-thirds of QRPers operate portably (64%) but a similar percentage of portable operators say they do not operate QRP (62%). We cannot be sure within this survey instrument whether these are simultaneous activities or not so keep that in mind.
3. We note that, somehow, the oft-heard critique that an amateur activity “isn’t real ham radio” if the Internet is involved skips over APRS. This activity is not possible without the Internet’s role in the system.
4. I will examine the time spent on specific modes by frequency band in a following article. This will complement this section on activity participation.
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